Virologist David Ho speaks about COVID-19

David Ho, Virologist and expert in viral epidemics of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center at Columbia University, tells us that the current situation regarding Covid19 is only the tip of the iceberg.

Will this coronavirus be seasonal?

Everyone is asking whether this virus is here to stay. Initially, just based on what China did with SARS long ago, there was hope that warmer weather and more sunlight would help kill the virus in our environment and therefore lower the probability of transmission.

But now this virus has gained such a strong foothold in the human population. It’s already 25 times larger than SARS and it’s already embedded in the Southern hemisphere. If you look at Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, there are cases there already, and community transmission is occurring. As the weather changes, perhaps the Northern hemisphere will gain an advantage. But the epidemic in the Southern hemisphere is going to accelerate.

The long-term outcome may resemble influenza so that we have seasonal bouts, with the virus bouncing back and forth between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This is of course just speculation, but that’s what we see with influenza.

After a person recovers from the virus, how long are they still contagious?

That’s a very important question. We’re not sure; one individual in China was shown to have persistent virus shedding for over a month. But typically, we’re looking at a three-week period from onset of symptoms.

Here’s the full article: caltech.edu